How it works

The real flow from claim to payout

The core rule is simple: LLM proposes, deterministic objects dispose. One sandboxed SubZeroClaw agent drafts text and market JSON; Elixir objects own routing, buttons, deposits, chain calls, resolution, settlement, and refunds.

1. 1 A claim is made in Telegram. tg_ingress applies roster, policy, and spam gates, then telegram_conversation_runtime feeds that conversation's isolated SubZeroClaw agent. The agent may draft only text and /workspace/draft.json.
2. 2 The draft is checked twice. market_validator validates the agent's market JSON, and on mm:create the runtime re-reads and re-validates the workspace file before market_bet opens a collecting market. No market id, recipient, wallet, oracle, or chain action comes from the agent.
3. 3 Participation and funding happen in DM. A public card can live in a group, topic, or DM, but amount pickers, deposit addresses, and confirmations go to the tapper's 1:1 Telegram DM. market_bet owns all deposit state and reads claim-bound addresses from EscrowVault.subAddressOf.
4. 4 The funding gate decides deploy or refund. If both Yes and No clear the minimum, market_bet freezes the funded legs and sends them to market_creation. If a side never funds, the vault refunds and no market is deployed.
5. 5 The coordinator owns chain work. market_creation asks market_resolution to prepare the oracle, deploys a Market clone through MarketFactory, and leaves it live/open on Base. Below graduation it is pari-mutuel; if the contract's threshold and price-band rules are met, the same market can graduate into curve trading.
6. 6 Resolution is routed through fixed shards. market_resolution_shard_N workers handle end-date timing, next-tweet anchoring, submitted evidence retries, gateway concurrency, and exact outcome mapping. Results route back through market_resolution, never from a sandboxed agent.
7. 7 Settlement or refund closes the loop. Market.Chain collects/locks funds, calls settle(0|1|2), and pushes payouts to winners or refunds everyone on terminal UNDETERMINED. Home chats get lifecycle status; participants get private DM lines.

Resolution

Micro Markets currently supports end-date and next-tweet market kinds. End-date markets resolve from fixed URLs or from allowed source domains after earliestResolutionDate. If the first verdict is UNDETERMINED, deterministic objects can open an evidence window until earliestResolutionDate + 7 days; the conversation agent may only propose a URL file, and objects choose the market, submitter, deadline, gateway attempt, outcome, and settlement.

Next-tweet markets do not point raw x.com or twitter.com URLs at the oracle. The shard anchors the latest original post, uses the host-owned Sorsa/X read provider to find the first newer original post, registers immutable evidence through the evidence-proxy, then resolves through the Micro Markets GenLayer oracle in event_before_deadline mode.

The app-side resolver, gateway HTTP contract, Sorsa/X reader, evidence-proxy client, and action-key idempotency are built. A fully live GenLayer/X setup still needs live gateway credentials, public evidence-proxy hosting, and live E2E verification; until then, this website labels unavailable live-only evidence instead of fabricating it.

Non-custodial escrow

Money never touches this website. When you tap a side, the bot sends a deposit card to your Telegram DM. The address is a unique, claim-bound escrow sub-address read from the market's configured EscrowVault; deposits are not hand-derived by the frontend or the LLM.

If one side never reaches the minimum, the vault refunds depositors directly and no market is deployed. If both sides fund, market_bet hands a frozen leg payload to market_creation; the coordinator never reads back into participation state.

Buy and sell only appear after a market graduates into curve trading. Pre-graduation markets are pari-mutuel participation flows, and this website still only hands the action to Telegram; it never signs, sells, settles, or redirects funds.

Privacy

Participants are blinded on-chain. The smart contract never records your Telegram ID or wallet address alongside your position. Instead, the contract sees an opaque reference derived as keccak256(secret ‖ marketId ‖ userId) — a one-way hash that lets the system route your payout without exposing who you are on-chain.

Odds are fully public — the Yes/No split, the pool size, the participant count — but names are never on-chain. The on-chain participant reference is a blinded hash, not your Telegram ID or wallet address.

Residual transparency: USDC Transfer logs on Base publicly record token movements between addresses, so if your funding wallet is linked to your identity off-chain that link exists on-chain too. The blinding protects you from enumeration by market — not from chain-level tracing of your own wallet activity.

Frequently asked questions

• What is micromarkets?

  micromarkets is a Telegram-native prediction market system. A sandboxed agent drafts market terms from a chat claim, then deterministic Elixir objects validate, collect both sides, deploy, resolve, settle, or refund. The website is a read-only companion.

• How do I create a market?

  Add the micromarkets agent to any Telegram group or DM at @micromarketsbot. Make a claim — any concrete statement people would participate in — and the agent drafts a structured market with resolution criteria and a closing date. The group taps Create, the market card goes live, and participants can join from anywhere the card is shared.

• What can I make a market about?

  Anything that fits the supported market kinds and can be resolved from public evidence. Today that means end-date markets with fixed URLs or allowed domains, and next-tweet markets handled through the Sorsa/X plus evidence-proxy gateway flow.

• Is my money safe? How does settlement work?

  Deposits go directly to a claim-bound escrow address on Base — not to a wallet this app controls. If both sides don't reach the $1 minimum per side, deposits are refunded and no market is deployed. When both sides fund, the market goes live on-chain. At resolution time, deterministic resolver shards and the configured GenLayer gateway return YES, NO, or UNDETERMINED; the coordinator settles on-chain or refunds everyone. Live GenLayer/X credentials and public evidence-proxy hosting are still operational launch work.

• What does it cost?

  The minimum stake is $1 USDC per side. The default market fee is 2%. In the current contract stack, fees split across protocol treasury, group treasury when configured, and graduation-liquidity rewards; refunds are not charged. There is no fee to create a market, browse, or watch.

• Is my participation anonymous?

  Your Telegram ID and wallet address are never recorded on-chain. The contract sees only a blinded reference — keccak256(secret ‖ marketId ‖ userId) — so participation can't be enumerated by identity. Odds (the Yes/No split and pool sizes) are public, but who chose what is not. Note: USDC Transfer logs on Base still record token movements between wallet addresses, so chain-level tracing of your own wallet activity is possible if your wallet is linked to your identity elsewhere.